NEW DELHI — Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s enduring camaraderie with President Donald Trump is set for scrutiny as the Indian leader embarks on a Washington visit this Wednesday, aiming to sidestep tariffs that have impacted others along with looming threats of additional taxes on imports.
As a pivotal strategic ally of the United States, India has thus far managed to avoid new tariffs, and the two leaders have nurtured a personal relationship. Modi, a nationalist facing criticism over India’s erosion of democratic principles, has welcomed Trump back to the White House, hoping to recalibrate India’s ties with the West amid ongoing tensions regarding Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Trump has often labeled India as a “tariff king” and has pressured the country on the issue of migrant deportations. In reply, New Delhi has shown a readiness to reduce its own tariffs on U.S. goods, accept the return of Indian citizens, and increase purchases of American oil.
However, with tariff threats on the horizon, the critical question remains regarding the extent to which a strong rapport between the two leaders will influence negotiations and how far India will be willing to compromise to strike a deal.
Modi had fostered a effective working relationship with Trump during the latter’s first term, and the two have the potential to enhance areas of mutual interest while “minimizing points of contention without yielding on central national interests,” as noted by Meera Shankar, India’s former ambassador to the United States.
“Compared to other partners, most have their reciprocal lists prepared from the outset, as it provides leverage during negotiations,” Shankar added, expressing optimism that India will “strike the right balance between assertiveness and adaptability” regarding the tariff issue.
With his ruling Hindu nationalist party freshly victorious in a high-stakes state legislature election last weekend in India’s federal territory, including New Delhi, Modi stated before departing for Washington that the visit presents an “opportunity to build on” the cooperation established during Trump’s first term and to “deepen our partnership” across sectors such as technology, trade, defense, and energy.
During a conversation with Modi in January, Trump emphasized the necessity for India to increase its acquisition of American-made military equipment and to address the trade imbalance. In the previous year, the U.S. imported $50 billion more in goods from India than it exported to the country.
A summary from the White House at that time reflected Trump’s insistence on the importance of India boosting its procurement of American-made security products and progressing towards a fair bilateral trading relationship.
Earlier this month, India accepted the repatriation of 104 migrants who were flown back on a U.S. military aircraft, marking the first such flight to India as part of a crackdown initiated by the Trump administration.
Additionally, Modi’s administration has reduced certain elevated tariffs, including those on some Harley-Davidson motorcycles, cutting them from 50% to 40%. In 2023, India also eliminated retaliatory tariffs on U.S. almonds, apples, chickpeas, lentils, and walnuts.
“We can also anticipate that Modi will propose purchasing additional American (natural) gas to help mitigate the U.S. trade deficit,” commented Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific security program at the Center for a New American Security, a Washington-based think tank. “This should provide some relief.”
CHINA RELATIONS
India is viewed as essential to the U.S. strategy aimed at containing China in the Indo-Pacific and is set to host a summit with a coalition known as the Quad — comprising the U.S., India, Japan, and Australia — later this year.
However, should there be a warming of relations between Washington and Beijing under Trump, India may need to reassess its position.
“Trump’s engagement with China could complicate India’s efforts to foster American interests in utilizing India as a counterweight to China, while avoiding becoming a proxy,” stated Happymon Jacob, founder of the New Delhi-based Council for Strategic and Defense Research.
India has made strides with China and agreed in December to seek resolutions for their protracted border disputes in the Himalayas following a military standoff that began with a deadly clash in 2020.
“Even a tactical adjustment between the U.S. and China carries implications for India,” Shankar remarked.
The U.S. stands as India’s largest trading partner, with a $50 billion trade deficit favoring India. The trade between India and the U.S. in goods and services amounted to approximately $190.1 billion in 2023. According to India’s External Affairs Ministry, U.S. exports to India reached nearly $70 billion, while imports stood at $120 billion.
Though India relies on Russia for nearly 60% of its defense supplies, the conflict in Ukraine has heightened concerns over future procurement, prompting New Delhi to explore options with the U.S., Israel, Britain, and others.
A recent agreement will enable U.S.-based General Electric to collaborate with India’s Hindustan Aeronautics on manufacturing jet engines for Indian aircraft domestically, alongside the sale of U.S.-made armed MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones.
Since 2008, India has procured over $20 billion in U.S.-origin defense equipment.
“This could be a domain where we witness synergies with the U.S.,” Shankar mentioned, adding that Trump will likely encourage India to acquire more defense assets.
Raja Mohan, an analyst at the Institute of South Asian Studies in Singapore, stated that Modi’s visit provides a timely opportunity to enhance Indo-U.S. relations.
“India’s diplomatic acumen will be put to the test, so the existing goodwill between Trump and Modi must translate into tangible results,” Mohan concluded.
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EDITORS AND LIBRARIANS: KILL FROM YOUR SYSTEMS, ARCHIVES AND PUBLISHED PLATFORMS AP PHOTO DEL106 (IMAGE ID 25042378453065), SLUGGED INDIA US MODI AND TRANSMITTED ON FEB. 12, 2025. THE PHOTO HAS BEEN TONED IN A WAY THAT DOES NOT MEET AP’S STANDARDS. NO REPLACEMENT PHOTO WILL BE SENT. – FILE – Jaspal Singh, 36, one of the Indian immigrants deported by the United States talks to his relatives upon his return to his home near Amritsar, India, Feb. 6, 2025. (AP Photo/Prabhjot Gill, File)
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